Virtual Research Associates (VRA)

This PowerPoint Slide Presentation outlines the approach and utility of the VRA NEWS service. We include a case study of the events leading to Indonesian economic crisis of the summer of 1997 and the social turmoil and political violence surrounding the East Timor independence vote that followed in 1999. Our aim is to demonstrate how a real-time, automated news report monitoring program can offer an early warning on the economic disruption of the summer of 1997 and on the subsequent escalation in violence.

We demonstrate a clear warning signal in April 1997, a full three months before the Indonesian market collapse that the steady climb in market value throughout the early 1990s was about to be abruptly reversed. In addition, another early warning is demonstrated in March 1999, three months before the peak summer violence surrounding the East Timor independence referendum.

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The VRA Approach: click here for Slide Show