VRA ® GeoMonitor Monthly Update Subscriber John Doe Subscription January 1, 2002-December 31, 2002 Update for December 2002 Country(ies) Monitored Pakistan

PAKISTAN - International Conflict : December 2002 Score

Score: Interstate conflict is slightly down (Z-score between -0.5 and -1.0). Explanation of Chart: Interstate conflict scores (Y axis) represent the sum of weights of all interstate conflictive events. The higher the score, the greater the interstate conflict. Each event is assigned a weight (Goldstein, 1992), ranging from -10 (extreme conflict) to 8.3 (extreme cooperation). Zero value events are excluded from these calculations. Z-scores are presented on the right-hand side of the graph. Z-scores are represented by colored circles. One red circle represents deviation greater or equal to -0.5 and less than -1.0 over the previous month. Two red circles signify a deviation greater or equal to -1.0 and less than -1.5. Three red circles represent a deviation greater or equal to -1.5. Green circles represent the same range of deviations in the positive direction. The color of the circle conveys the desirability of the change. Red represents negative trends and green signifies positive trends. White circles denote no significant change over the previous month (Z-scores of less that 0.5 in either the positive or negative direction). Source: Goldstein, Joshua S. (1992) "A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36/2 (June 1992): 369-385.

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